Early Warning, Scenario Generation, PIGs and Indicator Trees
- The only consistent market element is change…
Market power comes in being able to identify market
shifts and competitor moves early, rather than rehash what has just
happened. Those companies and executives who can do so, prosper. Those
who can’t, don’t.
Where do you and your company fit?
If laser-focusing in on market shifts and competitor moves is a
priority for you, we have the answer.
Bennion Robertson is renowned for our tools, systems and techniques
– clear methodologies for breaking complex issues down into
observable indicators. BR systems help identify where to look for the
information about each element of complex business questions. We
can’t answer the “big questions” of
business unless we can decompose them into recognizable elements
observable from outside of the target company.
Bennion Robertson consultants use systematic processes to guide you
through the process of developing true early warning systems, to keep
you on the competitive edge of your market.
Scenario Generation
Scenario Generation differs from Scenario Planning. Scenario Generation is a quick, but disciplined process.It is a universal human tendency to only see patterns after it is too late! To develop viable early warning systems, we must look at the future as if it were hindsight. Through the scenario generation process, we anticipate a market or competitive event – and imagine future possibilities. Asking the question, as if it had already happened, and then looking backward, we create 4 scenarios of what would have brought that event about – business as usual, hard times, great strides, and paradigm shifts. We look at elements of those scenarios from a macro-environment, industry environment and specific market viewpoints. Your goal is to anticipate different futures – success or ‘hard times’ for you and your competitor – then to plan intelligence to scan for anticipated opportunities and threats.
© Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF)
Probability Impact Grids -- PIGs
Having developed the above scenarios, the next step is to rank the probability and impact of those stories occurring. These are charted on a grid, shown below, which allows you to determine which areas to focus upon. Once we decide which events have a high probability of happening, and that it the impact will be high if it does occur, we focus on creating action and contingency plans. Where there would be a high impact, but the probability of it occurring is unknown, we find the areas we need to gather intelligence.
Indicator Trees
Indicator trees give us both the language and the discipline to plan for true early warning intelligence, while giving both collectors and clients a common language to help interpret the information that they find.To develop an indicator tree , we begin with an end-state, drawn from the scenarios generated. For each end state, we go through the following process:
1. What would have to happen to make end-state true?
2. What might keep it from happening?
3. Account for all major influences
4. Break them down into “observables”
5. Weight the links
6. Check your logic
Through charting this, weighted indicators emerge, giving us specific situations to watch for. This process allows us to visually connect expected future events to leading, linked indicators. We use these visual representations to ferret out management assumptions and enlist expert support. With these indicators in mind, we can plan our intelligence collection, implement the CI collection plan, and effectively analyze and interpret the data collected.
